A Bull Case for the Price of Bitcoin and Altcoins in 2025/2026

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In the years 2025/2026, we will see the next great Bitcoin and Altcoin bull run causing the Global Crypto Asset Market Cap to reach $5-10 Trillion or higher.

This article is a simple explanation of how the change in supply vs demand of Bitcoin can positively affect the price of BTC. We use the leading indicator of Bitcoin Block Reward Halvings to estimate the next Bull Market for Bitcoin and Altcoins alike.

What is the Total Supply and Circulating Supply of Bitcoin?

The current Bitcoin circulating supply is 19,408,268 with a maximum total supply of 21,000,000

The circulating supply of Bitcoin increases every block (~10 Minutes), as newly minted BTC are issued as block rewards.

What are Block Rewards?

Block rewards are a fixed number of newly issued coins (BTC) occurring every block, that are distributed to the miner (Validator), who creates and validates the block. Block times in the Bitcoin network are ~10 minutes. The rights to mine the next block are determined through the PoW consensus mechanism. These block rewards are inflationary, causing the Bitcoin circulating supply to increase every block.

The amount of newly minted BTC issued as block rewards is currently 6.25 BTC per block.

Block rewards halve every 210,000 blocks. Starting with 50 BTC per block, dropping to 25 BTC per block, to 12.5 BTC per block, to now 6.25 BTC per block, and next to 3.125 BTC per block.

The next Bitcoin halving date is scheduled to take place at block 840,000.

The below chart is showing the increase in Bitcoin circulating supply since the genesis block in 2009 vs the declining annualized inflation rate. Inflation will trend towards 0% as the block rewards continue to halve until a total supply of 21,000,000 is reached.

When is the next Bitcoin Halving Date?

The next Bitcoin halving date is scheduled to take place at block 840,000 – predicted to occur around April 26, 2024 at 11:45:00 AM UTC. On the Bitcoin halving date – the block reward is scheduled to drop from 6.25 Bitcoin per block to 3.125 Bitcoin per block.

This is an important event because the effect of halving the block reward is a sharp decline in the inflation rate. Less inflation makes the asset more scarce. If you assume the same demand, this will have a positive effect on the price per BTC.

Halving Vs Price

As we can see in the below chart, the halving schedule is compared to the price per BTC. Using the green markers as the halving indication, you can clearly see the bullish price appreciation within the following year of all 3 previous Bitcoin block reward halvings.

Bitcoin is the dominant asset across the entire crypto asset landscape with a current dominance rate of 47.9%. This bitcoin market share indicator typically fluctuates between 33% and 70%, with a higher percent dominance during bullish market cycles.

Projected Bitcoin price for 2025/2026

If we use the past examples of bullish price appreciation resulting in the year following the halving of block rewards, we can assume a positive price appreciation within a year following the projected April 26, 2024 block reward halving.

If we estimate the price of BTC in dollar terms, we can conservatively estimate a price per BTC reaching between $120,000 – $200,000 in the years 2025/2026.

Bitcoin Market Cap vs Global Market Cap

Based on past performance we project the Bitcoin price to reach between $120,000 – $200,000 during the 2025/2026 timeline.

If we estimate 20,000,000 bitcoin circulating supply we can also estimate the Bitcoin market cap, altcoin market cap, and global crypto asset market cap at the bottom, middle, and top of our price estimate range. To estimate the global market cap and altcoin market cap we will assume a 60% BTC market dominance. The percent increase numbers result from a current Bitcoin market cap of $575 Billion, a current Altcoin market cap of $625 Billion, and a current global crypto asset market cap of $1.2 Trillion.

Low Estimate

The market cap of Bitcoin will be $2.4 Trillion with 20 Million BTC in circulation with a price of $120,000.00 per BTC. With a 60% BTC market dominance this would make the Altcoin market cap $1.6 Trillion and a global crypto asset market cap of $4 Trillion.

Bitcoin Price: $120,000

Bitcoin Market Cap: $2.4 Trillion (⬆417%)

Altcoin Market Cap: $1.6 Trillion (⬆256%)

Global Crypto Asset Market Cap: $4 Trillion (⬆333%)

Mid Estimate

The market cap of Bitcoin will be $3.2 Trillion with 20 Million BTC in circulation with a price of $160,000.00 per BTC. With a 60% BTC market dominance this would make the Altcoin market cap $2.13 Trillion and a global crypto asset market cap of $5.33 Trillion.

Bitcoin Price: $160,000

Bitcoin Market Cap: $3.2 Trillion (⬆556%)

Altcoin Market Cap: $2.13 Trillion (⬆340%)

Global Crypto Asset Market Cap: $5.33 Trillion (⬆444%)

High Estimate

The market cap of Bitcoin will be $4 Trillion with 20 Million BTC in circulation with a price of $120,000.00 per BTC. With a 60% BTC market dominance this would make the Altcoin market cap $2.67 Trillion and a global crypto asset market cap of $6.67 Trillion.

Bitcoin Price: $200,000

Bitcoin Market Cap: $4 Trillion (⬆695%)

Altcoin Market Cap: $2.67 Trillion (⬆427%)

Global Crypto Asset Market Cap: $6 Trillion (⬆500%)

Conclusion

To conclude, we believe the Bitcoin halving is the leading indicator for bullish crypto asset markets. This reduction in inflation leads to a constriction on supply. Our model accounts for consistent demand leading to an increase in price. The rise in bitcoin price inherently leads to a rise in the altcoin market cap given the relation of market dominance.

Please note this is not financial advice, but rather an informative research article.